Orcutt, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

387
FXUS66 KLOX 162334
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
334 PM PST Tue Dec 16 2025

Updated Aviation Section

.SYNOPSIS...16/155 PM.

Dense fog will impact the Los Angeles area again through at least
Wednesday. Well above normal temperatures will continue through
Friday, with locally gusty north to northeast winds peaking
tonight through Wednesday Night. Dry conditions will continue at
least through Saturday, but there is growing potential for a
winter storm next week around Christmas.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...16/225 PM.

An eddy in the Socal bight has prevailed over a strong ridge of
high pressure and weak offshore flow to bring persistent low
clouds near and especially off the Los Angeles County coast this
afternoon. Low clouds and fog will likely push back into the LA
County coastal areas this evening with dense fog potentially
impacting the evening commute, especially interstates nearest the
coast like the 405. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for this
area, starting at 6 pm. Other coastal areas and lower valleys may
see dense fog as well, especially after midnight. Fog will likely
be slow to burn off Wednesday morning, potentially impacting the
morning commute and flights. Most areas should be clear by 10-11
am.

Advisory level Sundowner winds will keep at least southwest Santa
Barbara County cloud and fog free this evening into tonight, but
may serve to reboot the eddy overnight. Tightening northerly
gradients with moderate upper support from a system passing to our
north will likely support more widespread advisory level (30-50
mph) winds for interior mountain and desert areas late tonight
and especially into Wednesday. Advisory level winds will likely
filter into the valleys and lower mountains near the LA/Ventura
County border Wednesday afternoon and evening with a 30 percent
chance of reaching the LA Basin, especially nearest the coast,
Wednesday evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect for all of the
aforementioned areas, except the LA Basin, due to lower confidence
in the winds making it to the coast.

The offshore flow and strong ridge aloft will combine to support
widespread highs in the 70s and 80s through Thursday with the
warmest coastal valleys such as near Woodland hills possibly
flirting with 90. Those sensitive to the heat may want to take
extra precautions, especially if outside for a prolonged period of
time.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...16/225 PM.

The next of a series of storms is expected to impact the West
Coast this weekend. Most the impacts from the storm will remain
well to our north. However, periods of light rain are possible,
mainly San Luis Obispo, possibly teetering into northern Santa
Barbara County, at times Saturday through Monday. Further south,
the associated breakdown of the ridge will support cooling to
coastal valleys in particular.

We continue to track the potential for a wet period during the
holidays with an 80 percent chance of a moderate to strong strong
sometime in the December 23rd-26th time frame with active weather
possibly continuing beyond this period.

&&

.AVIATION...16/2333Z.

At 2240Z, the marine layer was around 600 feet deep at KLAX. The
inversion was topped at 3600 feet with a temperature of 22 degrees
C.

High confidence in VFR conds for KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, KBUR, KVNY,
KPMD, and KWJF. Moderate confidence in winds for all sites except
high for KPRB. Timing of wind shifts may be off +/- 3 hours, and
max wind gusts may be 15 kts higher at times. For KSBP, 30% chance
for NE winds 10-15 kts to surface from 16Z through the end of the
period.

Low confidence in TAFs for KLAX, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, and
KLGB. For tonight, moderate to high confidence in VLIFR to LIFR
conds for KLAX, KLGB and KSMO as early as 02Z and continuing into
at least 16Z. Moderate confidence for KOXR and KCMA. Low
confidence for KSBA, 40% chance for VLIFR to LIFR conds as early
as 06Z. Flight cat changes may be off +/- 3 hours. Arrival of
north winds for KLAX, KLGB, KSBA, and KSMO may be off +/- 3 hours,
and gusts may be 10 kts higher than forecast, with highest
uncertainty in wind speeds at KSMO.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance for vsbys
less than 1/4SM any point when cigs return, especially 02Z through
16Z. Flight cat changes may be off +/- 2 hours. Any east wind
component should remain less than 7 knots, however north winds
will arrive sometime between 17/18Z-18/00Z. There is a 30% chance
for gusts above 20 kts through 05Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conditions are expected
through the period. North wind arrival may be off +/- 3 hours.
There is a 30% chance for gusts to 30 knots after 17/20Z.

&&

.MARINE...16/1209 PM.

High confidence in the current forecast through Thursday, then
moderate to high confidence thereafter.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a 60-90
percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds through
Friday, highest during the afternoon and evening hours. There is a
30-40 percent chance of widespread GALES each afternoon and
evening through Wednesday night, but local GALE force gusts are
possible each afternoon and evening from Point Conception south to
San Nicolas Island. Winds will likely diminish some for Thursday
and Friday with chances of SCA level winds decreasing to a 40-70
percent chance, highest Point Conception south to San Nicolas
Island, but seas will approach SCA levels for late week.

Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas will remain
below SCA levels through Wednesday, but there is a moderate (30-40
percent) chance of SCA level winds across the western portions.
Winds will increase on Wednesday and continue into Wednesday night
while becoming northerly and impacting near coastal nears from
Malibu to Palos Verdes with a 40-60 percent chance of SCA
conditions. Winds and seas should drop below SCA levels for
Friday and Saturday.

Patchy dense fog will continue at times through at least Wednesday
morning, likely becoming more widespread tonight.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from noon to 10 PM PST Wednesday for
      zones 88-356-362-369>375-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 4 AM PST Thursday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 2 AM Wednesday to 4 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 352-353-376>381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 366-368. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM Wednesday to 2 AM
      PST Thursday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Thursday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Munroe/Hall
SYNOPSIS...jld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox